The moot point is if a re-energised Jayalalitha will order snap polls when the Opposition is in disarray and her own political starts are on the rise, says N Nathiya Moorthy.
The CM thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his support to Jallikattu, an emotive issue which triggered mass protests across the state.
Modi's non-reference could also imply that the BJP may be keeping its alliance options open vis--vis the AIADMK. It could also imply that the BJP's national leadership had not given up on the DMK returning to power in the state post-poll, and the Centre having to do business with a new government in Fort St George, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Strategy or confusion? The Tamil Nadu BJP has many reasons to feel let down by Prime Minister Modi's whistlestop tour to the state on Tuesday, says R Ramasubramanian.
The situation is unlike any other legislation/ordinance that governments at the Centre and states had passed on earlier occasions after the higher judiciary had held certain laws, orders or decisions ultra vires of the Constitution, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
With the Supreme Court reinforcing its stay on jallikattu, the state BJP hopes it can persuade its party leadership to bring in an ordinance. But this is a path filled with risk, reports R Ramasubramanian.
Stalin has started campaigning in the name of father Karunanidhi as the party's CM's candidate, but does not seem to have given up hope.
Tamil Nadu's ruling AIADMK may choose to capitalise on the confusion within opposition ranks and hope to ride to power on Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's popularity, writes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Sasikala's declaration of staying away from politics does not necessarily have to mean that she was retiring for good. She is only taking time to evaluate the post-poll chances of hers before digging in again, if possible, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Without strategising together, Jayalalithaa's successor, Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, and M Karunanidhi's son-cum-successor, M K Stalin, have used tough-talking on seat-sharing with allies, to replace charisma that they purportedly lacked, during the run-up to the assembly polls scheduled for April 6, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
R Rajagopalan, who travelled through Tamil Nadu, says it will be an election of many firsts.
Farming and debt go together in Tamil Nadu's Ariyalur district. There are those who have learnt to live with it and others like Alagar who could not cope with the loss.
'Most of those involved in these honour killings are the people who belong to the class that feels left out.' 'The high development index in a way is perpetuating conditions that result in social tension.' 'The only solution to the problem is politicise inter-caste marriages.'
The twin announcements have virutally cleared the decks for the merger of the two factions.
The man who led this journey is 50-year-old Kalanithi Maran, chairman and managing director of the Sun Group.
What will a split in the AIADMK mean for Tamil Nadu?
The AIADMK swept the polls winning 37 of the 39 seats, leaving DMK, its rivals, and the BJP to do a serious rethinking before the assembly elections in 2016, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is nothing to suggest that the DMK stands to gain from the AIADMK split nor is there anything indicative of an extraordinary advantage for the BJP, independently or in the company of the AIADMK, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
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'Why was Yeddyurappa taken back by the BJP ? Because his community is very strong in Karnataka and if he is back, the BJP thinks it will get more seats.' The government should stop all reservations based on caste, Gandhian Salem Velu Gandhi -- who recently asked the Supreme Court to include a new caste in the list of India's castes, for the children of inter-caste marriages -- tells Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier.
For the AIADMK, winning the Srirangam by-election without Jayalalithaa campaigning for it, and having Panneerselvam as chief minister, is saying a lot in its favour. But again, a year and more is a long time in electoral politics in the country, and more so in Tamil Nadu, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
DMK leader MK Stalin is concerned that a no-trust move would force the EPS faction to patch up with not only the OPS group but also the TTV camp and also get the 'Two Leaves' poll symbol unfrozen, which could upset his party's electoral apple cart, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP calculates that simultaneous polls to Parliament and TN assembly could help it, intent as it is on making the state break from its Dravidian past, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The ruling AIADMK is leaving no stone unturned to win the Vellore Lok Sabha poll and push its tally to two in the state, with its candidate even donning the skull cap to woo minority votes. But the DMK's stars are clearly on the ascendant in the lone constituency that goes to the polls on August 5. A Ganesh Nadar reports.
If the AIADMK falls short of the 117-mark required to form a government in the 234-member assembly, will it strike a post-poll deal to form Tamil Nadu's first coalition government? N Sathiyamorthy analyses.
Vijayakanth's DMDK may play a key role as Tamil Nadu's political parties scramble for allies to capture the state's 40 Lok Sabha seats.
'What has he done for the state and the people?' 'The state has witnessed extraordinary problems. Where was he then?' 'Has he spoken about any issues or taken a stand?'
With the DMK formalising its alliance with the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League, and the AIADMK not allowing the BJP anywhere near it, if the DMDK too goes with the DMK then the only option left for the BJP is to explore going with the PMK. In that case it has to endorse Dr Ramadoss as its chief minister candidate, says R Ramasubramanian.
However, the tilting factor still remains: Can the rivalling 'Modi brand' of 'soft Hindutva' and 'hard-sell nationalism' garner more votes for the NDA in Tamil Nadu, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
The veshti controversy in Tamil Nadu is not about the dress -- but a dress-code, which seems permissible in private homes and offices, but not in private clubs that are open only to well-heeled, and well-paying private members, observes N Sathiya Moorthy
Second-line AIADMK leaders and cadres alike say that by starting the talks first with the BJP and committing the party to an alliance without discussing seat-sharing, the leadership might have commenced the coalition discourse at the wrong end. According to them, even 20 seats for the BJP may be too many, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The DMK still wants to look elsewhere for excuses to its electoral debacle, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
And in the midst of it all, Jayalalithaa keeps the guessing game going, on her returning as chief minister and on calling for early assembly polls, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is a political vacuum emerging in Tamil Nadu, but can the Superstar, the state's biggest phenomenon since the late MGR, take advantage of it? Does he have what it takes to enter politics, or is he merely ensuring headlines ahead of his film's release, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
Verifiable 'distress-sharing' of available water may still be the way out of the Cauvery water row, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
In private, AIADMK spokespersons say that the raid on Chief Secretary P Ramamohana Rao might be aimed at weakening the AIADMK, and demotivating the party from selecting/electing Jayalalithaa's confidante, Sasikala Natarajan, as her successor -- first as party head then possibly in the government, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The last time Tamil Nadu seriously voted on pre-poll promises was in faraway 1967.
Contest on their own and get washed out, as happened in the 2016 assembly elections? Or contest in league with one of the Dravidian majors and get submerged under its election symbol? With elections looming, minor political parties in Tamil Nadu are caught in this dilemma, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The deadlock over finalising alliances has had a deleterious effect on the candidates of every party. The delay in alliance conclusion has also sent out confusing signals to the grass-roots who are unsure who will be their party candidate, or which party within an alliance will be allotted a particular constituency, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Of equal importance was the AIADMK's precarious assembly membership, what with 11 of its MLAs including deputy chief minister OPS facing court cases for disqualification and by-elections due in another 21. To shore up the party's numbers for anticipated eventuality on the 11-MLAs' front, the AIADMK leadership in general and chief minister EPS in particular, were even more focussed on assembly seats than LS seats, just now,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The jallikattu issue has revived pan-Tamil political sentiments especially among youths, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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